The possibility of using a mathematical model in predicting the probability of rapid progression of liver fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis D

HDV is the leading cause of death among all viral hepatitis types in the region, accounting for the highest proportion of mortality attributable to viral hepatitis. Therefore, the identification of predictors for rapid liver fibrosis progression is of high relevance. The purpose. To develop a prognostic model for classifying patients with CHD into high and low risk groups for liver fibrosis progression (using the Yakut population as a model). The study involved the review of 130 medical records of patients with CHD, 57 of whom were diagnosed with liver cirrhosis. A genetic analysis included the study of NOS3 gene polymorphisms using PCR. A logistic regression model was constructed based on the data on genetic markers, glucose levels, and thrombin time. Diagnostic accuracy was assessed using ROC analysis. Independent predictors associated with rapid liver fibrosis progression were identified: the NOS3 rs1799983 polymorphism was associated with a 3.53-fold reduction in the likelihood of rapid fibrosis progression (95 % CI: 1.21–10.25, p=0.021); a 1 mmol/L increase in glucose level increased the risk of rapid fibrosis by a factor of 2.06 (95 % CI: 1.18–3.60, p=0.011); and a 1-second prolongation of thrombin time decreased the probability of rapid fibrosis by a factor of 1.16 (95 % CI: 1.05–1.29, p=0.005). The model demonstrated a sensitivity of 98.2 %, a specificity of 85.1 %, a predictive accuracy of 90.8 %, and an area under the ROC curve of 0.820 ± 0.054 (95 % CI: 0.633–0.806). The proposed model can be used to stratify patients with CHD into high and low risk groups for developing liver fibrosis. The results underscore the importance of further research investigating the role of genetic factors in the pathogenesis of liver fibrosis.

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