Comparative statistical analysis of tuberculosis epidemiology in Punjab (Pakistan) and the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) for 2010–2023

Tuberculosis remains a leading cause of mortality from infectious diseases globally, with significant regional variability in the epidemiological situation; however, direct comparative studies at the subnational level between regions with contrasting conditions are lacking. The aim of this study is to conduct a comparative statistical analysis of tuberculosis epidemiology in Punjab province (Pakistan) and the Sakha Republic (Yakutia, Russia) for the period 2010–2023. Materials and methods: a retrospective comparative analysis of official statistical data from the Ministry of Health of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia), the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the Provincial TB Control Program of Punjab, the World Health Organization, and peer-reviewed publications was conducted using descriptive statistics and calculation of relative indicators. Results: during the study period, the incidence rate in Yakutia decreased by 59.5 % (from 74.9 to 30.3 per 100,000 population), while in Punjab the decrease was only 15 % (from 286 to 243 per 100,000 population); the gap in incidence rates increased from 3.8 to 8 times. The proportion of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) among new cases in Yakutia reached 24.6 %, while in Punjab it is 4.5 %. Differences in age structure were identified: the proportion of pediatric tuberculosis in Punjab is 18.4 %, compared to 4.3 % in Yakutia. Conclusion: the results can be used to improve anti-tuberculosis strategies in both regions, including scaling up diagnostics in Punjab and implementing new treatment regimens in Yakutia; a promising direction is the study of factors contributing to the rapid decline in incidence in Yakutia.

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