Analysis of mortality in the regions of the Central Federal District

Based on the data of the Federal State Statistics Service, the results of the analysis of mortality rates of the population of the Central Federal District for the period from 2016 to 2020 are presented. According to Rosstat, the number of deaths in Russia increased significantly in 2020. In January-December 2020, 2,124.5 thousand deaths were registered, which is 323.8 thousand people, or 18 % more than in January-December of the previous year. Of these, about half are those who died from COVID-19. The number of deaths from coronavirus during the pandemic exceeded 162 thousand people. The overall mortality rate increased to 14.5 % (deaths per 1,000 permanent population) against 12.3 % according to the 2019 data.

The resumption of the trend of moderate growth in the number of deaths is quite expected, given the aging of the population and the wave-like deformations of the age structure of the Russian population. Now the age of 70 years and older is reached by numerous generations born in the 1950s, and the mortality rate already at the age of 60 years and older is an order of magnitude higher than in middle ages.

In 2014-2019, age-related mortality rates decreased to one degree or another across all age groups, but at the same time the age composition of the population changed markedly. In 2019, the population in the age groups of 60 years and older was noticeably larger than in 2014. The only exception was a relatively small group of people 75-79 years old, born in 1940-1944. If in 2019 the age composition of the Russian population had been the same as in 2014, then with the age mortality rates of 2019, the total number of deaths would have been 6 % less than the actual one; or, in other words, the actual number of deaths turned out to be 6.4 % more due to changes in the age structure.

However, the change in the age composition of the population can only partially explain an increased number of deaths in 2020. The increase turned out to be several times more than one would expect, and it mainly occurred at the end of the year.

1. Regiony Rossii. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskie pokazateli. 2020: stat. sb. / Rosstat. – M., 2020. – S. 43.

2. Statisticheskii sbornik EZhEGODNIK 2020 / Obshchie koeffitsienty smertnosti po regionam Tsentral’nogo Federal’nogo Okruga. – S. 65.

3. Elektronnyi resurs: http://wiki.kubsu.ru/index.php/Pokazateli_urovnia_smertnosti. Data obrashcheniia: 2 dekabria 2021.

4. Regiony Rossii. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskie pokazateli. 2020: stat. sb. / Rosstat. – M., 2020. – S. 71.